Manufacturing PMI edged slightly lower to 50.9 in October. The services PMI jumped to 56.7 in October, a ten month high. Core retail sales rose by 0.8% in Q3. Housing commencements 12 month running dropped further to 23.5k in October. House price annual inflation inched up to +7.6% in September. HICP inflation rose to 2.8% in October, amid increases in education and food prices. Goods exports up by 60.8% YTD in September, led by a sharp increase in pharma exports (+66.2%)  and 12 month rolling Exchequer surplus widened to €10.6bn in October.

The November meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the central bank maintain the Bank Rate at 4.00%. This was the second consecutive meeting that the BoE Kept rates unchanged and was in line with market expectations. It also brings an end to its recent practice of lowering rates at meetings that correspond to the publication of its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR). 

The October meeting of the ECB's Governing council saw the central bank leave interest rates on hold. This was the third successive meeting that the central bank left its official retes unaltered. The deposit and refi rates were maintained at 2.00% and 2.15%, respectively. 

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October saw the central bank cut interest rates by 25bps, with the target range for the Fed funds rate lowered to 3.75-4%. This was the second consecutive rate cut from the central bank. 

Today’s budget, the first of the current Government, contained a package of measures totalling €9.4bn. The Government is providing an additional €8.1bn in spending increases and €1.3bn in tax cuts for next year.

Risk appetite improves following decreased uncertainty on US trade policy as deals concluded with EU, UK, and Japan. Market focus is now on central bank policy, as the Fed pivots to rate cuts. Fed set to cut rates twice more by end-25. ECB cutting cycle has ended. BoE rates trajectory remains uncertain. The dollar is set for weakest year since early 2000s. Euro likely to hold most of its gains, while sterling could remain on the defensive.

As we reach the halfway mark of 2025, the Irish residential property market continues to be defined by a shortfall in supply. The CSO completions data, which is the official measure of new supply indicate, a disappointing performance over the last year from the residential construction perspective.

Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2024 ....

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