The manufacturing PMI stayed firmly in expansion mode but eased to 52.6 in May. Traditional industrial production rose by 0.9% in the 3 months to April but were down 0.7% Year on year. The service. PMI increased to 54.7 in May, consistent with a sharper pace of expansion in the sector. The CSO services index was up by 6.3% in the 3 months to April.

The June meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. (FOMC) saw the central bank leave policy on hold. The target range for the Fed funds rate was maintained at 4.25-4.50%. This represented the 4th meeting in a row where the Fed left policy unaltered and was very much in line with market expectations.

The June meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary policy committee (MPC) saw the central bank leave the Bank rate unchanged at 4.25%. This followed a 25bpd reduction in May. Today's decision for unaltered rates was very much in line with the market expectations. So far in the current easing cycle, which began in August last year, the BOE has caught a total of 100bps.

The ECB's governing council meeting for June saw the central bank lower interest rates for a fourth consecutive time this year. It's once again reducing them by 25bps, With the deposit rate lowered to 2.00%., while the Re-fi rate was decreased to 2.15%. This Marked the eight 25bps rate cut since the ECB started its easing cycle in June 2024.

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff climbdown and de-escalation with China has driven a recovery in markets in recent weeks. However, the uncertainty created by the 90-day pauses and the eventual landing zone for US trade policy is expected to dent global growth, reflected in recent forecast downgrades. Central bank outlook clouded by trade policy uncertainty, with the Fed holding pat on rates amid current uncertainty. We expect Fed cuts to resume in H2 2025

The global economy entered 2025 in good shape, with indicators pointing to stronger growth in the Eurozone and UK, and continued robust, yet moderating growth in the US. However, the uncertainty created by the imposition of US trade tariffs, followed by partial 90-day delays, has created volatility in financial markets and concern in the real economy.

Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2024 ....

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices...

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